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Dear Readers,
Sales struggles for electric vehicles, the planned “combustion engine ban” from 2035, Deutsche Bahn’s reliability, and the debate over air taxis: transport is front and centre in our daily lives and the media. The core question is, how can we shape tomorrow’s mobility? The future of transport needs to be environmentally friendly and economically viable, while also meeting users’ needs.
Against this backdrop, we have dedicated the latest edition of our ZEW Monthly to the topic of “Transport”. Even the best technology has limited impact if it a) isn’t accepted, b) isn’t used correctly, or c) doesn’t fit its purpose. This edition features three studies by our researchers. Anna Straubinger examines the public acceptance of transport policy measures. She also explores the potential of air taxis, which, while contributing little to sustainable mobility, could be of great help in rescue operations. Meanwhile, Eunseong Park reveals that many people do not charge their plug-in hybrids as intended.
We wish you an enjoyable read and safe travels at all times!
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↗ IN FAVOUR OF FINANCIAL SUPPORT AND A SPEED LIMIT
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| Without the approval of the general public, it is difficult for policymakers to implement measures in the transport sector for the purpose of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The acceptance of such projects is largely influenced by the citizens’ economic self-interests. approval level for these policies.The greater the personal benefit from climate-friendly transport policies, e.g. through subsidies, the higher the approval level for these policies, a ZEW study has found.
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| More about the study
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↗ AN ENERGY-INTENSIVE PIPE DREAM WITH LITTLE ACCEPTANCE
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| Vehicles for urban air mobility (UAM), such as air taxis, are often touted as having great potential. They are expected to be more efficient, quieter, and cheaper than conventional helicopters, potentially leading to broader use cases in the future. However, a meta-study by ZEW reveals that travel times are rarely shortened, costs increase, and CO2 emissions are higher compared to electric cars. UAM could be useful primarily for emergency missions and connecting remote areas.
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| More about the study
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↗ HIGH FUEL PRICES BOOST ELECTRIC MOBILITY
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| Plug-in hybrids, with their combination of combustion and electric motors, are considered a transitional technology on the path to full electric mobility. Yet, drivers are scarcely tapping into the emission advantages over conventional combustion engines. According to a study by ZEW and the University of Mannheim, rising fuel prices lead to more electric kilometres driven. It shows that drivers of hybrid vehicles cover the same number of kilometres at higher fuel prices as before, but reduce their fuel consumption by using the electric mode more frequently.
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| More about the study
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| | ↗ YES TO SPEED LIMITS, PROMOTION OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT AND ELECTROMOBILITY
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| A survey conducted by ZEW, the University of Kassel, the Baden-Württemberg Cooperative State University (DHBW) and the University of Gothenburg shows that the most supported policies are those that contain a financial incentive, for instance lower taxes for public transport or subsidies for electric cars and buses. Additionally, more than half of the respondents support raising taxes for airline tickets, and participants who support a speed limit on the highway outnumber those who don’t. The de facto “combustion engine ban” and the introduction of highway tolls, however, are less favourably received. However, it’s worth noting that less than a third of respondents strongly disapprove of the controversial “combustion engine ban”, meaning that it could potentially gain favour in the future with the help of better political communication or supplementary measures.
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↗ EASING THE DEBT BRAKE? NOT WITHOUT CLEAR PRIORITISATION
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| Discussions on easing Germany’s debt brake are gaining momentum. Given the urgent need for future investment in infrastructure, education and digitalisation, a possible relaxation of this fiscal rule is being considered. However, a study by ZEW, supported by the Strube Stiftung, concludes that relaxing the debt brake would likely lead to increased consumptive spending, which would benefit short-run interests rather than sustainable investment. The analysis focuses on how financial leeway in the federal budget from 2010 to 2019 was used in order to draw conclusions on the extent to which additional budgetary funds were used for consumptive or investment spending.
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| More about the study
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↗ REDUCING HEALTH CARE COSTS WITH LONG-TERM SOLUTIONS
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| The “GKV-Schätzerkreis”, a committee that assesses the development of revenue and spending of Germany’s statutory health insurers, forecasted that supplementary health insurance contributions will rise to 2.5 per cent on average next year. This would bring the average total contribution rate to 17.1 per cent. Professor Simon Reif, head of the “Health Care Markets and Health Policy” Research Group at ZEW, has commented on that matter.
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| More about the study
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↗ TRUMP VS. HARRIS: CONSEQUENCES OF US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FOR GERMAN ECONOMY
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| The outcome of the upcoming US presidential election in November 2024 could have a substantial impact on the German economy. According to a new analysis by ZEW, financial market experts see a Harris victory as more likely to benefit economic growth in Germany. However, inflation is expected to remain largely unaffected by the outcome of the election. Based on data from the ZEW Financial Market Survey, the analysis investigates the impact both outcomes of the election could have on Germany’s economic prospects.
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| More about the study
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| | | ZEW President Achim Wambach has spent a research stay in the USA. In an interview with Leibniz Magazine, he describes the role of think tanks in the USA, among other things: They are often closely linked to politics and are partly privately funded. US think tanks work closely with science, but pursue clear political goals, in contrast to the more state-funded research institutes in Germany, which provide independent findings to politicians.
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| Read the full interview
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| | | | UPCOMING | |
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| | | FISCAL EFFECTS OF IMMIGRATION
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| As part of the Horizon Europe project WeLaR (Welfare Systems and Labour Market Policies for Economic and Social Resilience in Europe), ZEW will host an online workshop on the Fiscal Effects of Immigration on 9 December 2024.
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| More about the event
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| | | | → CONTACT FOR QUESTIONS OR SUGGESTIONS ON THE CONTENT | |
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| | | | | ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research
L7, 1 · 68161 Mannheim
Phone: +49 (0)621/1235-01
E-mail: zewmonthly@zew.de
Website: www.zew.de
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| | | | | Executive Directors:
Professor Achim Wambach, PhD; Claudia von Schuttenbach
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Ministerial Director Dr. Hans Reiter
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